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Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season/August
August is here and storms aren't. 04:38, 3 August 2009 (UTC) AoI: West of Senegal This one's a long way off, but a week from now it'll be heading for the Caribbean. Both the CMC and GFS develop it, and the long-term GFS sends it into the Gulf (very warm waters) before dissapating. Could be one to watch if it can hold together and reach TS status. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:20, 6 August 2009 (UTC) :And as quickly as it comes, it's gone. Today marks the 21st anniversary of the beginning of the 1988 season. Not one season has started later since. However, if you ignore the subtropical storm in April, 1992 didn't start until August 17...and had a grand total of six named storms that year. Just goes to show you that all it takes is one to change the face of a season. 1987 didn't start until August 9. I have to say that I don't see a storm forming by Sunday. 1992 aside, that would make the 2009 season the latest start in 25 years! 1984 didn't get going until August 19 with Subtropical Storm One. Arthur didn't form until August 29. The only modern-era season to start later than that was the Dead Year of Dead Years: 1977 when Anita formed on August 30. 1977 was very nearly the first September start since 1920. It should be noted that many seasons that didn't start until mid-August went on to be fairly active years. 1984 ended up with 13, 1950 started on August 12 and also had 13 including a record 8 major hurricanes (the one record 2005 failed to break). 1949 is another example. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:47, 7 August 2009 (UTC) ::This afternoon's TWO is quiet as ever.I've compiled the Dates of first Atlantic tropical cyclones for every year since the deadliest-ever 1780 season for comparison,right now this is the slowest start since 1992 if subtropicals count and 1987 if they don't,but as the NOAA forecast says,late starts don't mean no major hurricanes.And looking over the long history makes clear that there are no patterns to count on,at all!--L.E./ 22:13, 8 August 2009 (UTC) 02L.ANA 99L.INVEST Just off the coast of Africa, but it looks better than anything else so far. NHC's giving it a medium chance for development. Ana? Is that you? We've been waiting. --Patteroast 16:56, 9 August 2009 (UTC) :It appears as though the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is finally about to begin. However, seeing as Ana is unlikely to form today, this will be the Atlantic's latest start since 1984 (discounting 1992). And that's assuming this thing develops. It looks good and conditions are apparently favorable. The models aren't unanimous and the ones that do make it a tropical storm weaken it in about 96-108 hours. We'll see. I would say fingers crossed, but I'm very wary of storms that form out there. Cape Verde storms always make me nervous, especially this time of year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:40, 9 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two NHC says we've got TD2, forecast to become Ana! --Patteroast 12:22, 11 August 2009 (UTC) :Hey! There it is! At last, life! Looks like we're gonna have to be patient though, but it's got plenty of time. It doesn't look like much right now but we'll see if it can get any deep convection organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:53, 11 August 2009 (UTC) ::EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY according to Advisory #4.--L.E./ 03:43, 12 August 2009 (UTC) ::But Advisory #6 sounds less confident.--L.E./ 16:32, 12 August 2009 (UTC) ::Advisory #8,"STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE".(Forecast has it peak at 45 Kt).--L.E./ 03:06, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :::This is unbelieveable. This season just cannot get going. We're already at the latest start since 1984. If we don't get Ana sometime within the next seven days, it will be the latest start in at least 32 years! I'm actually stunned, at this point. Earlier this afternoon, the depression had built up vigorous convection and was on the verge of ending the drought. But in just seven hours, all that convection completely evaporated. I just can't believe it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:37, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::::25 years,not 32.In 1984 Arthur got storm status on the 29th.(1967 and 1977 are tied with the 30th...before that there's 1941...before that 1914...and before that there weren't any storms recorded in 1845,but I wouldn't be surprised if some were missed).See Dates of first Atlantic tropical cyclones.--L.E./ 04:04, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Advisory #11 says it's a remnant low.--L.E./ 22:03, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :::::NHC's giving it a medium chance to redevelop. --Patteroast 15:30, 14 August 2009 (UTC) ::::::Whoa, high chance now! Looks like TD 2's trying to revive itself. All of a sudden, the Atlantic has gotten interesting. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:37, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana Hello Ana! Looks like TD2 resumed advisories last night, and has been upgraded! --Patteroast 12:40, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Um... I know its accuracy hasn't been that awesome in the past, but it's kind of worrisome when the first CMC run I look at after the storm gets named has it heading into the gulf and explosively strengthening. Hurricane season has really begun! --Patteroast 12:51, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::Ana! Sweetheart, there you are! I've been looking everywhere for you, where the heck have you been! If Ana can just make it through, this patch of dry air and ugly shear environment, she might be able to cause some trouble. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:44, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Well, let's hope the current track forecast from NHC is off (as 5-days tracks often are). Because right now, "Mid-late August Tropical depression forms, dissipates, reforms, then head straight toward southern Florida to cross in the Gulf" sounds way too much like a bad remake of a movie I don't want to ever see again.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:57, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::Well, whether it hits Hispaniola - World-Famous Storm Killer or not, I don't much like the idea of Ana making it to the Gulf of Mexico in one-piece. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:22, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ana Recon flight couldn't find an storm-force winds, and Ana has been downgraded. Forecast only shows a slight strengthening before crashing against Hispaniola... but there's a good chance the next advisory could be the last, unless something changes. --Patteroast 20:50, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :Advisory 23 says it's dissipated with no more circulation.--L.E./ 21:33, 17 August 2009 (UTC) ::Dissipated inland Yucatan. 05:02, 22 August 2009 (UTC) 03L.BILL AoI: South of Cape Verde Latest wave off Africa, NHC's got this at medium chance of development. Surprised it's not already an invest. --Patteroast 02:05, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :Well,so far this season,storm prediction's been a bad INVESTment.--L.E./ 03:05, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::In the next couple of days, it's gonna hit a wall of about 20-30 kt shear that is just bulldozing through the Atlantic right now. It's already knocked off TD 2 and this disturbance might be next. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:44, 13 August 2009 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Been invest'd, NHC's got it at a high chance of development... maybe this'll be Ana instead? Maybe this and TD2 will both go poof? Who knows. --Patteroast 19:02, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :The models ''really like this one. Only AVNI fails to make it a hurricane and five different models, including SHIPS, take it to at least 90 knots in a week. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:39, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::HWRF has this as a category 4 hurricane heading into the Bahamas. Sounds like we're going to be seeing Hurricane Bill sooner, rather than later. --Patteroast 12:53, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :::As for right now, NRL's having a little hiccup and 90L's disappeared... but when you view all the storms for the year, it shows up at 03L.THREE. So...--Patteroast 13:05, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three And there it is. Forecast to become Bill shortly, a hurricane soon, and will be heading towards major hurricane status at the end of the forecast period. --Patteroast 14:53, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :This is the scary one, IMO. The long term environment for TD 3 looks a bit better than it does for Ana. It's storms like TD 3 that tend to make me nervous. I don't like where it's pointed. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:52, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bill Advisory #2 was all it took to get named,and the forecast is steady strengthening up to 90Kt in five days.--L.E./ 21:24, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Advisory #3's accompanying 120-hour forecast is 95KT.--L.E./ 02:57, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::As Ana struggles,Bill builds...60 mph winds now,forecast 90KT in 48 hours and 105KT in 96 hours,on track for the Georgia coast.--L.E./ 16:14, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::Bill is a very happy tropical storm. It looks scary good right now. I could easily see it approaching hurricane strength by nightfall. L.E., I have a condo on the Georgia coast, please don't say that. The models are starting to show more of a northward curve toward the end of the period as they get a better handle on a forecast break in the subtropical ridge. The official forecast is actually on the southern edge of the guidance envelope. That said, I hope I'm not the only person scared by NHC saying its forecast after 48 hrs could be conservative...a forecast that brings it to 105 knots by the end of the period. HWRF and GFS make Bill a 120 knot Category 4, something I want pointed at open water thank you very much. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:05, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Might as well try my hand at a prediction: no East Coast landfall, but it gives Bermuda a Category 4 thrashing a la Fabian. It, however, stops short of Cat. 5 (150 mph) Jake52 20:01, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::::Forecast now up to 95KT at 48 hours and 105KT at 72 through 120.If it dodges Georgia,fine,just don't bring it up here...we've just had almost the only rain-free weekend of the summer!--L.E./ ::::::Well at 105 knots, rain is the least of your problems. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:38, 17 August 2009 (UTC) :::::::Bill is larger than Ike, moving WSW, and starting to develop an eye. 2007Astro'sHurricane 05:10, 17 August 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Bill Hey guys, long time no talk. We now have a hurricane just 3 days after Ana (if I'm not mistaken). Storm's Eye 09:15, 17 August 2009 (UTC) :Ana got TS status only about 48 hours before Bill got hurricane status,I thought?...NHC now forecasts 100KT winds in 36 hours,peaking at 110KT for 72 and 96.--L.E./ 16:59, 17 August 2009 (UTC) ::The models are going nuts with Bill. HWRF makes Bill a high-end category 4, and GFDL pushes him up to a category 5. Fingers crossed for staying in the water between the US East Coast and Bermuda... --Patteroast 19:34, 17 August 2009 (UTC) :::The 11PM forecast shows 100KT as reached in 24 hours,with the 110KT peak now straddling 48 and 72 hours before it begins to weaken.--L.E./ 03:06, 18 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Now at 105mph...with the 110KT peak now from 36 to 72 hours but the 120-hour intensity forecast down to 95KT.--L.E/ 15:12, 18 August 2009 (UTC) :::::NHC seems determined to keep Wild Bill below Category 4 strength. I'm not sure that's right. I could easily see a 115 kt peak at this point. Now it may depend a lot on changes to the hurricane's inner core, such as ERCs, but I think the environment is conducive enough to support a low-end Category 4 hurricane. Also, I know an eventual turn away from the coast seems likely right now, but I think New England should really watch this thing and make sure it doesn't try to pull a 1938 because this far in advance it's difficult to say what those troughs are going to do. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:37, 18 August 2009 (UTC) ::::::Discussion 14 now goes for the 115KT peak from 24 to 48 hours,then 110,then weakening further.--L.E./ 20:59, 18 August 2009 (UTC) Major Hurricane Bill Recon found Bill to be a category 3! --Patteroast 00:36, 19 August 2009 (UTC) :Bill is now almost a Category 4! I just looked at the satellite and said there is no way this isn't a major hurricane. Then I saw the update. Wow, is Bill an impressive storm! Adjusting the previous forecast of a 20 knot increase in winds for the new intensity, you come up with a peak of 130 knots! It will be a very interesting next twelve hours. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:57, 19 August 2009 (UTC) ::So far the new forecast peaks at 125 knots at 24 and 36 hours.--L.E./ 02:48, 19 August 2009 (UTC) :::Bumped up to category 4 with the latest advisory. --Patteroast 10:28, 19 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Did not intensify between 5 AM and 11 AM advisories,but expected to do so.--L.E./ 15:18, 19 August 2009 (UTC) :::::Winds have been 135mph all day,with intensification still forecast but the 125-knot peak still 24 hours away.Pressure has dropped below 28 InHg (now 945 mbar).--L.E./ 02:59, 20 August 2009 (UTC) :Downgraded back to 3. Which is just as well, what with a forecast track that puts it over or close to two Canadian provincial capital/provincial chief city while still at hurricane strength (Halifax and St John NF)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:48, 20 August 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Bill again Got downgraded to 2 sometime yesterday. Forecasts haven't changed much except in terms of intensity. Probably a good thing, since it still looks set to make a pass at both Halifax and St John.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:40, 22 August 2009 (UTC) :Could somebody please tell me why there isn't a hurricane warning out for Nova Scotia? The thing's parked right offshore. They're probably getting gusts to hurricane force along parts of that coastline. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:30, 23 August 2009 (UTC) ::It may be downgraded to TS any time now,even before becoming an ETS.--L.E/ 23:03, 23 August 2009 (UTC) 04L.CLAUDETTE AoI: Florida Keys It first, I didn't give this one much thought, but it has lingered for several days and hasn't just not gone away; it's gotten more concentrated and organized. It would not surprise me at all to see it bumped up to medium risk tomorrow. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:17, 16 August 2009 (UTC) 91L.Invest :High chance. 05:53, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Am I really that good? It's now officially invest'd according to NHC's floater page. Watch out! I think this thing has Claudette potential and it's right on our doorstep. Here we are gazing nervously out at some ominous clouds in the distance and then this b/tch pops up on our back porch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:55, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 4 ... 10:19, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :Sorry, was logged out when I typed this message. T.D. Four per NHC. Jake52 10:21, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Forecast to become Claudette, too. Things sure got ''really interesting (in the Chinese sense thereof) all of a sudden.-- 14:22, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::And that one was *me*--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:23, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Claudette 1215PM Update Statement from the NHC says it's Claudette!--L.E./ 16:38, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :Did I nail this one on the head or what! I bet Panama City's gonna have a wonderful evening tonight. What is up with the Atlantic now? After spending the past two and a half months in a coma, the place has gone nuts. I mean, we've gotten three named storms in the past 36 hours. That's ridiculous. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:20, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Am I seeing a banding eye forming on radar? My GRLevelX radar program clearly depicts what looks like a banding eye forming. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:06, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::We have landfall. Claudette just came ashore in the Destin-Miramar Beach area at about 12:05 am CDT according to my observation of the radar. I expect the official announcement will come momentarily. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:09, 17 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Claudette The NHC has handed over coverage.--L.E./ 01:35, 18 August 2009 (UTC) :Just wanna know...this is out of topic...is the first 90L is somewhat similar to Claudette? Or it was just another thing?????? Storm's Eye 07:07, 19 August 2009 (UTC) ::Its off Carolina coast now. 16:26, 19 August 2009 (UTC) 05L.DANNY 92L.INVEST NRL's got this listed, near the Lesser Antilles right now. Some of the models show it developing as it nears the US East Coast. --Patteroast 13:50, 24 August 2009 (UTC) :Now this one is interesting. I like its satellite presentation, especially given that it's under 30 knots of shear but none of the major models do anything with it. NHC says the shear could let up and if that happens I gotta believe that its going to do something. CIMSS' shear tendancy product is not current so I can't speak to that assessment. It's just one of those wait and see kind of things. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:00, 25 August 2009 (UTC) ::CMC's doing its thing, predicing it'll go nuts and bash into the Outer Banks and Delmarva. --Patteroast 04:50, 25 August 2009 (UTC) :::Yeah, I saw that. Makes it like this monstrous major hurricane that rakes up the east coast, beats the crap out of NYC too. Gotta love CMC. But I really like this thing, if not as much as CMC does. It has maintained a great satellite presentation despite some lingering strong shear. The southeast US should keep an eye on this one. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:37, 25 August 2009 (UTC) ::::TWO says a Hurricane Hunter will check it out.--L.E./ 16:09, 25 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Danny Per NHC. Plotted to follow Bill and go after Cape Cod, Canada and Maine, for now. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:53, 26 August 2009 (UTC) :Sorry I wasn't here earlier, but my god, the AHS is really heatin up now. It looks like Danny will be the first New England hurricane since 1991's Bob, and the basin has gone nuts in the past week, after 2 months being dormant. 22:19, 26 August 2009 (UTC) ::Danny is a weird storm. When it formed, it was quasi-tropical and has a very poor structure to it. I think that shear has been slower to let up than NHC anticipated. However, several major models still think Danny will become a hurricane, with HWRF bringing it up to 75 knots. It is unsettling how the track forecast keeps shifting west. However, if it shifts far enough west, it'll run into North Carolina before it has a chance to strengthen much. That said, I think I'll stay out of that game of Russian roulette (no, nothing to worry about, it'll hit NC and go away...then the chamber lands on the path to New England and you wind up shooting yourself in the head) and say westward expansion is a bad thing. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:00, 27 August 2009 (UTC) :::Yikes, Danny is a really unhealthy looking storm. It hasn't looked fully tropical in quite a while. Starting to doubt it'll even survive till North Carolina. --Patteroast 01:52, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::::And... it didn't! Extratropical, absorbed by a front. --Patteroast 14:32, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Danny RAPIDLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW,says the final advisory.--L.E./ 18:02, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :Wow... big rain- and gust-maker.... think so... reminding him, just kinda weird... having thunderstorm activity mostly on the east side rather than the whole system. Storm's Eye 00:30, 30 August 2009 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Blob just off the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. NHC's got it at a low chance, and since it's just off the coast I doubt it'll do much as for development... at least in the Atlantic. --Patteroast 04:34, 25 August 2009 (UTC) :Aaaand it crossed over into the Pacific, where NHC has it at a low chance of development. --Patteroast 11:15, 26 August 2009 (UTC) ::Now it's 94E TD13E Jimena. --Patteroast 14:31, 29 August 2009 (UTC) 06L.ERIKA 94L.INVEST This disturbance has gotten distressing in a hurry. Popped up as a low risk area last night and is now up to medium risk as it has continued to organize. All major models bring it to hurricane strength in not more than 108 hours except for the GFDL. SHIPS brings it to 95 knots by the end of the forecast period. Right now is when disturbances out there scare me the most. There is not much standing in the way of this thing right now. I'm having bad visions of Hurricane Erika (please not "Erika") obliterating something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:16, 27 August 2009 (UTC) :Question Sky... :does that adage of yours apply to carry-over storms as well? I ask because in just the off-chance that this storm only becomes a depression in September.Jake52 07:09, 28 August 2009 (UTC) ::Not sure I understand your question. My adage is Beware the First Storm of September. And in the sense of carry-over storms, depressions that form in the last days of August but become storms in September fall under this adage as well. The last week of August/first week of September have historically produced the worst storms. Ike, Ivan, Hugo, Felix, Floyd...all were the first storms of September in their respective years. The list of storms that have formed in that two week period is a veritible Murderer's Row. We'll see. All the major models bring it to 90 knots by the end of the forecast period with the notable exceptions of NOGAPS and HWRF. However, only NOGAPS fails to develop the system. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:53, 28 August 2009 (UTC) :::That's what I was asking (I remember from when Ike was active, and I think you said the same for Felix). If it turns out this way (and it may), I'm not looking forward to Erika, but hopefully it does what a prior Erika did. We shall see, however. Jake52 06:12, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Back down to low risk in this afternoon's TWO.--L.E./ 18:04, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Wow, what a turn of events! In just one night, everything of interest in the Atlantic essentially evaporated and now the Pacific has gone bonkers. Jimena (former 93L) went from scattered showers to a full-on hurricane in 12 hours and hasn't stopped yet. We also have Kevin and a Central Pacific depression in addition to Krovanh, which has been active in the West Pacific for the past couple of days. Happy El Nino year everyone! If you are planning a tropical vacation, this is your year! And with what looks to be an active winter, it might also be time to book that family ski trip you've been planning. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:56, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :And back up to high risk (red) this morning. Wheeeeeee.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:33, 30 August 2009 (UTC) ::What the heck is going on? I think it's safe to say there are fluctuating conditions out there. Still bears watching. Hasn't changed much since sunrise though. The models have stayed faithful to it. GFS don't develop it but all other major models do. GFDL and NOGAPS don't intensify it much but SHIPS, HWRF and LGEM all take it to around 85 knots in five days. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:39, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :::Recon is investigating the system now to see if it's finally a tropical depression. NHC seems pretty sure it's going to develop, saying that watches or warnings could be required for the Leeward Islands later today. I personally don't see how it's not a tropical depression at this point. The models have remained faithful to it, with most of them forecasting it to reach hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period. Could we wake up and pay attention? It's baffling to me how no one seems to care about this thing anymore. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:22, September 1, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Erika Whoa! Recon found that that it was not only a closed circulation, but a full tropical storm. --Patteroast 20:52, September 1, 2009 (UTC) :Got your attention now doesn't it. Recent TWOs had been saying that winds could be of tropical storm strength (going so far as to call it likely) and they were right. NHC's staying conservative right now, given the current shear pattern. That may change. Most of the guidance makes Erika a hurricane. GFDL and HWRF establish an anticyclone over the system. Stay tuned. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:57, September 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Who's saying hurricane?...NHC forecast peaks at 60 knots.--L.E./ 04:38, September 2, 2009 (UTC) :::Like I said before, most of the reliable guidance models say it will become a hurricane. SHIPS, LGEM, HWRF and GFDL all make Erika a hurricane. In fact, the intensity consensus model (ICON), brings it to 80 knots by Friday. HWRF makes it a major hurricane by Saturday. GFDL takes it to 95 knots in five days. Only NOGAPS is more lackluster than the official forecast among the major models at this point. I don't think UKMET thinks much of it either but I'm not sure. So, as I mentioned, NHC is staying on the conservative side at this point. They're citing long range global models, whose forecasts short-term intensity models like HWRF may not take into account, that indicate increasing vertical wind shear toward the end of the period. We'll see. This is where I typically defer to the experts. Also, I've lost some faith in the short-term models after they completely botched Danny. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:28, September 2, 2009 (UTC) ::::Where are the models online,anyway?...but Erika's not acting very hurricaney today.--L.E./ 15:09, September 2, 2009 (UTC) :::::Colorado State is one, FSU is another. No, Erika is not acting hurricane like at all. The significant disparity between the model forecasts and the apparent conditions (and therefore actual results) has really been quite puzzling. The models have made a habit of overestimating storms this year. It's like a CMC Syndrome or something. Only with Bill and perhaps Claudette have the models performed reasonably well. That said, the shear pattern over the Atlantic right now is really squirrely and has been all year. Why are there pockets of 50 knot shear as far south as 18N in the subtropical Atlantic? That's bizarre. This has really been a frustrating year for forecasters. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:37, September 2, 2009 (UTC) ::::It appears Erika will suffer the same fate as Ana did, passing into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and dying out. I don't know why it has been so dead this year; it's '''SEPTEMBER', for god's sake, and the Atlantic looks no different than it did in June or July. I don't know whats causing this, but ya couldn't have picked a better season to go to the antillies for vacation. I haven't seen the antillies area this quiet from hurricanes since '06. 04:31, September 3, 2009 (UTC) :::::Well, Erika pretty much just summed up how the season has gone for the Atlantic and, truth be told, much of the rest of the world except for the north Pacific east of the dateline. It has been a severely lopsided El Nino and probably the least active season worldwide since 1977. At this point last year, 11 major hurricanes had formed outside EPAC (which had only one, Hernan, by Sep. 4). Just seven have formed outside EPAC thus far this year, two of which barely count. WPAC has had just two, same as last year, but just six typhoons and the two majors were both 10-20 kts weaker than the two last year. And more than just the numbers, the power vaccum is palpable. All basins, even EPAC, were slow to get started and (except for EPAC) have been sluggish when they did. 76, in 1997, the Atlantic had no storms in August and just one in September (Erika, the season's only major hurricane). In terms of Atlantic inactivity, this is nothing. It wouldn't surprise me if we don't see another major hurricane this year. However, in terms of global inactivity, this is pretty remarkable. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:45, September 4, 2009 (UTC) ::::Sky, another remarkable feature is, about the Pacific, the Eastern Pacific is actually ahead of the Western Pacific so far this year. The WPac is 1 named storm and major hurricane behind the EPac. I Mean, I have never seen the EPac be active while the WPac is dead. If ths inactivity keeps up, it is possible for the EPac to be the most active basin worldwide this year. That is just incredible. On the Atlantic side, we can't assume that September and October will go by quietly; there ''are some seasons that start slow but end harsh. In '98, not counting Georges, the AHS was quiet for the most part, but in late October of that year, Central America got historic damage and deaths from the disastorous Hurricane Mitch. 1994 is another. It was quiet early, but had a terrible end when Gordon wrecked Haiti in November. So, the season isn't over yet; we still must keep our eyes out. 04:54, September 5, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Erika Remnant low. Storm's Eye 08:14, September 4, 2009 (UTC) :Wow. Why both Ana and Erika cannot pass through the same area? Storm's Eye 02:06, September 5, 2009 (UTC)